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Original problem
Sue and Bob take turns rolling a 6-sided die. Once either person rolls a 6 the game is over. Sue rolls first, if she doesn't roll a 6, Bob rolls the die, if he doesn't roll a 6, Sue rolls again. They continue taking turns until one of them rolls a 6.
Bob rolls a 6 before Sue.
What is the probability Bob rolled the 6 on his second turn?
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First, an easy thing.
Probability Bob rolls a 6 on turn 2 given nothing at all.
| Sue rolls 1-5. | |
| Bob rolls 1-5. | |
| Sue rolls 1-5. | |
| Bob rolls the 6. | |
So the probability of it happening at all is
But what is the probability given that Bob rolls the first 6?
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Wrong Answer
but I'm not sure what's invalid about it.
| Sue rolls 1-5. | |
| Bob rolls 1-5. | |
| Sue rolls 1-5. | |
| Bob rolls the 6. | |
| |
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What is the probability that Bob rolls the first 6?
| Probability of getting a 6 on his first turn | |
| Probability of getting a 6 on his second turn | |
| Probability of getting a 6 on his | |
| Probability of rolling the first 6 | |
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| | |
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Conditional probability woo
So now we can find the probability he won on turn 2 given that he won.
| A -- | Bob rolls the first 6 |
| B -- | Bob rolled it on his second turn |
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Final Result
. See? It's easy. :/
