ExciteMike

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Original problem

Sue and Bob take turns rolling a 6-sided die. Once either person rolls a 6 the game is over. Sue rolls first, if she doesn't roll a 6, Bob rolls the die, if he doesn't roll a 6, Sue rolls again. They continue taking turns until one of them rolls a 6.

Bob rolls a 6 before Sue.

What is the probability Bob rolled the 6 on his second turn?

First, an easy thing.

Probability Bob rolls a 6 on turn 2 given nothing at all.

Sue rolls 1-5. LaTex: \frac{5}{6} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
Bob rolls 1-5. LaTex: \frac{5}{6} \cdot \frac{5}{6} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
Sue rolls 1-5. LaTex: \frac{5}{6} \cdot \frac{5}{6} \cdot \frac{5}{6} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
Bob rolls the 6. LaTex: \frac{5}{6} \cdot \frac{5}{6} \cdot \frac{5}{6} \cdot \frac{1}{6} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host

So the probability of it happening at all is LaTex: \frac{125}{1296} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host

But what is the probability given that Bob rolls the first 6?

Wrong Answer

but I'm not sure what's invalid about it.

Sue rolls 1-5. LaTex: 1 --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
Bob rolls 1-5. LaTex: 1 \cdot \frac{5}{6} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
Sue rolls 1-5. LaTex: 1 \cdot \frac{5}{6} \cdot 1 --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
Bob rolls the 6. LaTex: 1 \cdot \frac{5}{6} \cdot 1 \cdot \frac{1}{6} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
LaTex: = \frac{5}{36} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host

What is the probability that Bob rolls the first 6?

Probability of getting a 6 on his first turn LaTex: = \frac{5}{6} \cdot \frac{1}{6} = \frac{5}{36} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
Probability of getting a 6 on his second turn LaTex: = \frac{5}{36} \cdot \frac{5}{6} \cdot \frac{5}{6} = \frac{5}{36} \cdot \frac{25}{36} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
Probability of getting a 6 on his LaTex: n --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_hostth turn LaTex: = \frac{5}{36} \cdot \left ( \frac{25}{36} \right)^{n} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
Probability of rolling the first 6 LaTex: = \sum_{n=0}^{\infty} \frac{5}{36} \left ( \frac{25}{36} \right)^{n} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
LaTex: = \frac{ \frac{5}{36} }{ 1 - \frac{25}{36} } --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
LaTex: = \frac{ \frac{5}{36} }{ \frac{11}{36} } --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
LaTex: = \frac{5}{11} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host


Conditional probability woo

So now we can find the probability he won on turn 2 given that he won.
LaTex: P(B|A) = \frac{P(A and B)}{P(A)} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host

A -- Bob rolls the first 6
B -- Bob rolled it on his second turn

LaTex: P(B|A) = \frac{P(A and B)}{P(A)} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
LaTex: P(B|A) = \frac{\frac{125}{1296}}{\frac{5}{11}} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host
LaTex: P(B|A) = \frac{275}{1296} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host

Final Result

LaTex: \frac{275}{1296} --- http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/LaTeX_on_a_shared_host. See? It's easy. :/